Return of the Hawk?

Issue #76




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We Called It!

  • @donnyenglish - Week 72 - “looking to add following a daily close above $10.40”, the stock closed +24% on Tuesday, closing at $11.26 (+8% spot gain)

Macro Markets

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady after its next meeting on Wednesday, May 1. However, there may be hints regarding how the Fed expects to react to the uptick in inflation reported in 2024. Fixed-income markets still expect the Fed to cut interest rates later in the year.

As such, the path to the Fed’s 2% inflation goal is less certain, as annual inflation is between 3% and 5% today, depending on the metric used. Even in the best case, 2% inflation could take longer than expected. For now, the Fed is expected to leave rates at high levels for longer in reaction to inflation data, but interest rates will still be cut in 2024.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the announcement. Investors worldwide will be closely monitoring what the US Federal Reserve says. Powell's talk may hint at the future course of monetary policy.


The U.S. economy is expected to have added roughly 243,000 jobs in April, potentially keeping the unemployment rate steady at 3.8%. However, the market has repeatedly underestimated the labor market’s resilience, so a stronger-than-anticipated NFP survey remains possible. That said, a particularly robust jobs report would likely propel the U.S. dollar upwards, as it could reinforce expectations of a cautious Fed on rate cuts.



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