FOMC & Payrolls on Deck

Issue #51

We Called It!

  • APE went up 10% from our $1.3 breakout level shared three weeks ago

  • TRB ripped up an astonishing 84.1% from our $67 breakout level shared two weeks ago

  • GAS was called in TG chat at $4.8 and we exited $5.6 for around a +15% gain

Macro Markets


We have the FED rate decision today. We have called for a hold on rates this week with no hikes. US Labor has held up quite well. There are signs of slowing down, but the economy is still strong. The FOMC meeting will play a significant role in shaping market sentiment this week. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool predicts a 97% likelihood that interest rates will remain unchanged at this meeting, decreasing to a 68% probability for the December meeting. Market participants also await the US Treasury's refunding announcement on Wednesday, detailing its plans to sell tenures to offset Washington’s budget deficit.


In September, we saw yet another big payroll report with another 336k jobs added, while August was revised up to 227k, which pushed US long-term yields higher on the day to new 16-year highs. Wage growth was slightly softer than expected at 4.2%. Another notable fact was a big jump in part-time positions, which rose 151k and could explain why wage growth showed little sign of racing higher. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%. Expectations are for October payrolls to come in at 185k.

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