Bond Market vs. Risk Market

Issue #61

NEWS!

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We Called It!

  • ETH/BTC (Crypto Fox): Newsletter long setup from last week (entry: 0.05398) ran to our suggested profit-taking target at 0.06095. So far, we have hit 13.32% maximum profit potential.

  • SOL (Daniel4): The newsletter idea was long, starting at $95 and hitting $107.6 before drawing down to our stop-out level of $88. We recommended taking some profits at $103 and $105 in telegram. We did NOT hit our targets at $116 and $127 – yet.

  • SOL (Daniel4): TG called $95.5. Part of our entry closed at $98 and the rest at $103.

  • SOL (Daniel4): TG scalp call from $98.38 entry ran to $100.50, and many members profited.

Macro Markets

The most important release of the week will come on Wednesday with the latest edition of retail sales, which are considered a proxy for consumption. Forecasts suggest that headline and core retail sales rose by 0.3% and 0.2% monthly in December.

The holiday shopping season appears to have been successful, corroborated by monthly credit card spending data released by Mastercard and the newly-released CNBC/NRF retail sales monitor, which attempts to track official retail sales.

This tracker pointed to a monthly retail sales increase of 0.44% in December, above the consensus forecast of 0.3% that economists have penciled in. As such, the risks seem tilted towards a positive surprise in this dataset rather than a disappointment.

Coming on top of a hotter-than-expected inflation report last week, another upside surprise in retail sales could help dampen speculation about imminent Fed rate cuts.

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